Global historic trends of crude oil demand and production

Introduction

Global supply and demand determine crude oil prices. Economic growth is one of the most significant factors affecting petroleum products and therefore crude oil demand. Growing economies increase demand for energy in general and especially for transporting goods and materials from producers to consumers.

Apart from the general reasons, there have been some historical trends and reasons for the particular increase or decrease in the countrys' crude oil consumption or production. In this analysis, I would like to present some of them.

Tri decade Change - Oil consumption measured in tWh equivalents(1990-2019)

• Considering a three-decade change(1990-2019) in oil consumption throughout the world, Vietnam witnessed the highest change with a 755% increase in oil consumption. Coming to the other side of the coin, Ukraine recorded the highest decrease of 84% in oil consumption.

• Ukraine started using Nuclear energy and coal as the primary energy sources which accounted for the decrease in oil consumption.

• Coming to Vietnam, it has become one of the most highly electrified countries in the world, with grid electricity reaching 98% of the population.

• The current average retail price of electricity in Vietnam is low, about 8.1 US cent/kWh, and is among the lowest in Southeast Asia and the world. There is a significant cross-subsidy scheme that guarantees a very low price for manufacturing and administrative sectors (6.1 c/kwh for normal hours, 3.8 c/kwh for off-peak hours, and 11 c/kwh for peak hours), the major source being Oil and Gas

• Having high cross-subsidy schemes and such reforms have accounted for a drastic increase in oil consumption by Vietnam.

• Considering the below-given graphs, we could observe that Russia's consumption kept on decreasing and China's consumption kept on increasing.

Tri decade Change - Oil production measured in tons(1990-2019)

• Considering a three-decade change(1990-2019) in oil consumption throughout the world, Equitorial Guinea witnessed the highest change with around an 8000%(Very small region which is almost invisible on the world map) increase in oil production. Coming to the other side of the coin, Syria recorded the highest decrease of 95% in oil consumption

• In Equatorial Guinea, large oil reserves were first discovered in 1996. Within a decade, Equatorial Guinea's oil production rose from 17,000 bopd in 1996 to a record 375,000 bopd in 2005. This large discovery of the oil reserves is the expected reason for the spike in oil production.